Sources familiar with the situation told CNN that Iran's government is extremely nervous and has been making urgent diplomatic efforts with countries in the Middle East to see if they can lessen Israel's response to its missile attack earlier this month and, if that fails, help protect Tehran.
According to the sources, Iran's anxiety stems from the fact that its most important proxy militia in the region, Hezbollah, has been significantly weakened by Israeli military operations in recent weeks. Additionally, Iran is concerned about whether the US will be able to persuade Israel not to strike Iranian nuclear sites and oil facilities.
Israel and the United States have been discussing how to respond to Iran's attack on October 1, and US officials have made it clear that they do not want Israel to target Iranian oil fields or nuclear facilities. On Wednesday, in their first conversation in nearly two months, US President Joe Biden advised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the country's response should be "proportional."
An Arab diplomat told CNN that the United States' Gulf allies, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar, have also expressed concern to the United States about the possibility of an attack on Iranian oil facilities, which could have negative effects on the entire region's economy and environment.
The Biden administration is extremely concerned that the ongoing tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Iran, which began earlier this year when Israel struck what Iran claimed to be its consulate building in Damascus, could escalate into a significant regional conflict that also involves the United States.
The suspicions stem primarily from the fact that the United States' relationship with Israel appears to be steadily declining over the past year. In a manner analogous to its operations in Gaza, Israel has increasingly ignored US pleas for greater restraint in Lebanon, where Israel's intense bombing campaign and ground offensive have resulted in the deaths of over 1,400 individuals since the end of last month.
Before assassinating Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut and upsetting a delicate ceasefire proposal that had been presented by the US and France less than 48 hours earlier, Israel also did not consult with the US before conducting a massive attack that destroyed thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah operatives last month.
An Israeli official told CNN on Friday that the security cabinet of Israel hasn't decided how to proceed. A US official stated that while the gap between the US and Israeli positions is narrowing, it may not last forever.
"We can't really know regardless of whether they casted a ballot," a senior organization official said of the Israeli bureau's conversations, communicating suspicion over the degree of straightforwardness about the thing Israel is imparting to the US. The authority proposed they can't "put an excessive amount of confidence in the maneuvers" of the Israeli government.
CNN reported that Israel had not stated that it would not target Iran's nuclear facilities as of the previous week.
Israel has for quite a long time been arranging assaults on Iran's atomic capacities, and only quite a while back recreated striking them in a tactical activity. Iran's nuclear facilities have been under siege from cyberattacks, most notably the Stuxnet virus, which was able to penetrate Iran's Natanz nuclear facility. Israel is also suspected of carrying out assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists in recent years.
On Wednesday, Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant issued a firm warning to Iran regarding the response of his nation, stating, "Our strike will be powerful."
Our strike will be potent, precise, and, most importantly, unexpected. “They will not comprehend what took place or how it took place,” Gallant stated.
The Arab diplomat stated that most Gulf states want to remain out of the conflict. It is also unlikely that Iran's neighbors would explicitly come to Tehran's defense in the event of an Israeli attack, despite the fact that Iran has publicly warned that any parties that are perceived as assisting Israel will be treated as aggressors.
The Arab diplomat and another person with knowledge of the situation told CNN that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have, on the other hand, informed both Iran and the United States that they will not allow Israel to use their airspace to strike Iran. A Jordanian official stated that Jordan will also shield its airspace from any unauthorized intrusion, regardless of where it originates.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera this week that Netanyahu "is the only one who wants a war and to set the region on fire to stay in power." The US does not believe that Iran wants to get involved in a full-scale war with Israel.
An official stated that, despite this, the United States has still urged Tehran to adjust its response in the event of an Israeli attack through backchannels.
The US official stated that ultimately "we just do not know what [Iran] will do," despite the fact that Qatar communicates with the Iranians on a regular basis and relays what they say to the United States. Another US official stated that key Iranian voices will have divergent opinions regarding whether and how to respond to Israel. However, this will depend on the magnitude and scope of the highly anticipated Israeli move.
Since Iran launched its barrage of missiles at Israel earlier this month, this official stated, messaging from Iran has remained consistent, both publicly and privately, and there has not been a significant shift in messaging.
Iran has been especially keen on finding support from Saudi Arabia in forestalling an Israeli assault and utilizing their leverage with Washington to assist with finding an answer for the emergency, the Middle Easterner negotiator told CNN.
Araghchi traveled to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to "consult on regional developments" and "try to stop the crimes of the Zionist regime in Lebanon and Gaza," he told local media. Officials from each nation have met three times in less than a month.
The world is keeping a close eye on Israel as it considers how to answer. Israel, on the other hand, will observe Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement and the holiest day of the year in Judaism, until at least sunset on Saturday. Even though it is not out of the question that Israel will take action, public transportation will not be available, shops, restaurants, and other services will be closed, and even the Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv, the country's primary airport, will be closed.
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